What American CEOs need to know

This is quite a heavy article. It was written by Herb Meyer who served during the Reagan administration as Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council. [“In these positions, he managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret projections for the President and his national security advisers. Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet Union's collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community's highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the author of several books.”] If you took the time to read it you’ll understand why I say that but also why I chose it. My dad emailed me this article a couple of days ago with no commentary, just “read this; it’s interesting.”

The implications in the article are great, startling, interesting. While I don’t agree with the author whole-heartedly on a couple of topics, I think this article and its talking points are worth further discussion.

First, Meyer’s comments about China moving millions of people from rural areas to urban areas intrigues me. As the reader, I was frustrated that he didn’t explain more why the government is doing this. Sure, bring people to where the work is… but 250 million people? That needs an explanation! The codependency between China and the United States he discusses is dead on. Living here in Paris and traveling around Europe, I feel like I’m being robbed. Some things are so much more expensive than at home, and I’ve never really understood why. I never heard enough about China’s importance or influence to understand that it carries so much clout in the world market. I was trained to believe they were more at the mercy of the U.S. than we at theirs. This factor is indeed extremely important for American CEOs to consider. But the Chinese are not yet home-free when it comes to supplying Americans with all it hungers for. The government and people of China need to consider how to handle the ever-growing population and the concentration of that population before the country itself experiences total and damaging chaos.

The problem of changing demographics in Europe and Japan especially is an imminent problem for which not just governments have to prepare; people all over the world, thanks to globalization, will also feel the effects of younger citizens bearing the financial burden of the ageing population. This of course includes the American CEOs Meyer is targeting in his article. Not having young people to pay the pensions and social security of the enormous ageing population could be disastrous for those young people. And if Meyer is correct that the European economy is in such shambles, there may eventually be a mass exodus to find better circumstances elsewhere.

*Side note*: Besides France, I am most familiar with the goings-on in the Netherlands, where, I’m told, Muslims immigrate in droves. One interesting point I have heard on more than one occasion about these immigrants is that the number of children in a family is staggering, often as many as eight. I suspect this is where the comment about half of all births there by 2020 being non-European comes from. But Meyer fails to mention this fact that will most certainly have an impact on the number of working young supporting that ageing population.

Personally, as much a I love Europe, I don’t see that this is the place where I would consider settling down and having a family. There is a good chance I will marry a European, and despite the great things I feel about this continent and the Netherlands, a failing economy and increasing danger from global warming make it less and less appealing to try to start a life here. And, while I would not fall into the category of lost residents, I could be a particularly attractive immigrant with European (rather than Muslim) heritage, a good work ethic, and a desire to integrate myself into society. But if they can’t attract the kind of immigrants that will keep the Netherlands (for example) truly Dutch, how can they think they have a prayer to preserve their society as we know it when their people won’t reproduce and the country gets more Eastern Europeans and Muslims every day?